Economic Scan - Saskatchewan: 2024
Demographics
Highlights
- Saskatchewan has the second highest proportion of workers aged 65+ of the western provinces, at 21.5% after B.C. (22.5%), despite having the smallest population.
- Workers aged 55+ account for 35.9% of Saskatchewan's population in 2024, the third lowest proportion out of all provinces after Manitoba (34.8%) and Alberta (32.2%).
- Workers aged 15-19 accounted for 16.2% (5,600) of Saskatchewan's unemployment, the highest proportion out of all age groups.
- Workers aged 15-24 accounted for 15.4% of Saskatchewan's population aged 15 and over, higher than the national average at 14.5%.
Saskatchewan's population was over 1.2 million in 2024, a 2.5% increase from 2023. Saskatchewan represents 3.0% of Canada's total population.
Indigenous persons comprised 11.8% of Saskatchewan's population aged 15+ in 2024. Among the provinces, Saskatchewan has the largest disparity between the unemployment rate for Indigenous (10.9%) and non-Indigenous (5%) persons. These are the highest Indigenous unemployment rate and lowest non-Indigenous unemployment rate in Canada.
In 2021,14.4% of Saskatchewan's population identified as part of a visible minority group. South Asians and Filipinos were each about 4% of the population. The proportion of visible minorities was lower than other provinces, except the Atlantic provinces.
Saskatchewan had the lowest proportion of immigrants among the non-Atlantic provinces in 2024, with immigrants comprising 16.5% (156,000) of its working population in 2024. Immigrants in Saskatchewan accounted for only 1.7% of total landed immigrants in Canada.
Persons with disabilities comprised 29.8% of Saskatchewan's population aged 15 and over in 2022, according to the Canadian Survey on Disability (conducted every five years). Within the labour force aged 15 and over, 24% are persons with disabilities.
Source: Statistics Canada - Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) 2022.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024...
Employment increased (+2.6%)
Unemployment increased (+18.9% or +5,500)
Unemployment rate increased to 5.4%
Participation rate increased (+0.2%)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 3.9 |
| 2015 | 5.2 |
| 2016 | 6.5 |
| 2017 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 6.1 |
| 2019 | 5.5 |
| 2020 | 8.3 |
| 2021 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 5.4 |
- Saskatchewan had the third lowest unemployment rate in Canada in 2024, after Yukon (4.3%) and Quebec (5.3%). The unemployment rate increased 0.7%, but remained below the national average of 6.3%
- The lowest unemployment rate within Saskatchewan was in the Saskatoon-Biggar region at 4.9% while the highest unemployment rate was in the Regina-Moose Mountain region at 6%.
- The average monthly vacancy rate in 2024 in Saskatchewan was 3.63%, second highest among the provinces after B.C. (3.83%)
Economic Conditions
Saskatchewan's Economic Drivers in 2024
Investment in agriculture and mining
International trade initiatives
Record immigration
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. November 2024.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.9% |
| 2025 | 2.8% |
| 2026 | 2.2% |
| 2027 | 2.7% |
Reviewing 2024...
- Expectations for employment opportunities in Regina were hampered as Federated Co-Operatives Ltd. indefinitely paused its $2B project to build a canola crush facility and renewable diesel plant in Regina due to political uncertainty and changing U.S. regulations. The project was expected to bring thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of permanent jobs, impacting employment prospects in the region.
- Construction projects in Prince Albert boosted employment in the region and construction sector in 2024. Projects include a $900M acute care tower at the Victoria Hospital and Humboldt Co-op's new $7M fertilizer facility.
- BHP started construction at it's $14B Jansen potash mining project near Saskatoon in 2024. BHP estimated a workforce of about 5,500 during construction and about 900 full-time roles with production slated to begin in 2026. Additionally, a group of over 50 urban, rural and Indigenous communities called S 4-6 is partnering with BHP to maximize benefits and address key priorities around the project, such as housing and labour force development.
Risks to the Saskatchewan Economy in 2025
- The impacts of U.S. tariffs, particularly on the agriculture and manufacturing sectors
- Reduced immigration through low Provincial Nominee Program allotment (3,600 placements, about half the amount for 2024)
- Low housing supply relative to population growth in recent years may impact labour demands and mobility of labour
- Non-residential investment is most prominent in the agriculture and mining sectors. Fluctuating commodity prices and volatility in international trade may create uncertainty for these sectors.
Regional Issues
Migration
Saskatchewan's interprovincial migration deficit decreased from 2023 to 2024 by 21.3%. Last year, 20,011 people left Saskatchewan for other provinces and 14,772 people left other provinces for Saskatchewan, resulting in a 5,239 deficit. Domestic interprovincial migration was lower in 2024 than in 2023 overall, attributing population growth (+30,558) to record international immigration.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) | Percent Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | +3.9 | +4.3 |
| Educational services | +3.8 | +7.4 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | +2.1 | +6.1 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | +1.5 | +7.3 |
| Accommodation and food services | +1.3 | +4.3 |
| Information, culture and recreation | +1.3 | +6.5 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Public administration | +1.2 | +3.3 |
| Agriculture | +1.2 | +4.7 |
| Transportation and warehousing | +0.8 | +2.8 |
| Other services (except public administration) | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Manufacturing | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| Construction | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| Business, building and other support services | -1.0 | -7.1 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | -1.1 | -3.8 |
| Utilities | -1.4 | -18.4 |
- Employment in health care and social assistance grew the most (+4.3% or +3,900) from 2023 to 2024. Demand for nurses and physicians continue as labour shortages and worker burnout persist across Saskatchewan.
- Utilities experienced the biggest employment losses (-18.4% or -1,400). Reliance on coal-generated power in some communities remains a challenge while transitioning to cleaner energy. Investments in clean and nuclear energy projects may support future growth.
- Wholesale and retail trade had the highest total employment (100,100) in 2024. Modest employment growth (+1.3% or 1,300), was driven by gains in the wholesale trade subsector (+8.2% or 2,100), possibly from an increase (+$1.7M) in energy product exports.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Employment in Prince Albert and Northern increased by 1.7% in 2024, supported by construction projects including Victoria Hospital's new acute care tower and Humboldt Co-op's fertilizer facility.
- Yorkton-Melville saw the largest drop in employment, decreasing by 9.6% (-3,900) in 2024. The City of Yorkton and Town of Moosomin launched incentive programs to address housing shortages and encourage workers to move to the region.
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2024
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change (%) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Saskatoon-Biggar | +5.1 | +11.0 |
| Swift Current-Moose Jaw | +3.4 | +1.7 |
| Regina-Moose Mountain | +2.7 | +4.9 |
| Saskatchewan | +2.6 | +15.2 |
| Prince Albert and Northern | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Yorkton-Melville | -9.6 | -3.9 |
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