Economic Scan – New Brunswick: 2024
Demographics
Highlight
In 2024, 854,000 people lived in New Brunswick, an increase of 2.7% from 2023 to 2024. New Brunswick represents 2.1% of Canada's total population.
Average age of the non-Indigenous population in the province is 45, versus 37 in the Indigenous population (Census 2021).
- New Brunswick’s population increase in 2023 (+22,200) was due to record immigration (+15,000) and positive net interprovincial migration (+2,800).
- The proportion of seniors aged 65 years and older is projected to increase from 23.0% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2034.
- In 2024, individuals aged 55 years and over accounted for 43.4% of the working-age population. By 2034, that proportion could reach 46.5%.
- The proportion of youth (aged 15-29 years) is projected to increase from 11.0% in 2024 to 16.0% in 2034.
The Indigenous population comprises 4.4% of the total provincial population (2021 Census) and continues to be under-represented in the labour market, accounting for 4.0% of the provincial labour force. The unemployment rate is notably higher amongst Indigenous people (16.4%) compared to the non-Indigenous working-age population (10.1%).
Recent immigrants (those arriving between 2016 and 2021) accounted for over a third (36.4%) of New Brunswick's immigrant population in 2021. The pace of new arrivals has increased significantly in recent years, particularly as the province has looked to immigration to fill existing labour market gaps.
Over two-thirds (69.5%) of New Brunswick residents identified English as their first official language (Census 2021), while 30.3% identified the province's other official language, French. Only 0.2% identified a first language that was neither English nor French.
According to 2022 results from the Canadian Survey on Disability, 35.3% of those aged 15 years and older in New Brunswick were persons with disabilities, representing an 8.6% increase from 2017. Disability rates tend to rise with age, so the results are consistent with the fact that the province’s population base is growing older, on average.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024...
Employment grew at a healthy pace (+3.5%)
Unemployment rate increased from 6.6% to 7.0%)
Participation Rate was up slightly (60.4% to 60.6%)
Employment Rate was essentiallly unchanged (56.4% to 56.3%)
New Brunswick's Unemployment Rate
Show data table: Unemployment Rate
| Unemployment Rate (%) | |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 10.0 |
| 2001 | 11.1 |
| 2002 | 10.1 |
| 2003 | 10.2 |
| 2004 | 9.8 |
| 2005 | 9.7 |
| 2006 | 9.2 |
| 2007 | 7.7 |
| 2008 | 8.7 |
| 2009 | 9.0 |
| 2010 | 9.4 |
| 2011 | 9.6 |
| 2012 | 10.4 |
| 2013 | 10.4 |
| 2014 | 10.1 |
| 2015 | 10.0 |
| 2016 | 9.7 |
| 2017 | 8.3 |
| 2018 | 8.1 |
| 2019 | 8.2 |
| 2020 | 10.3 |
| 2021 | 9.2 |
| 2022 | 7.2 |
| 2023 | 6.6 |
| 2024 | 7.0 |
- New Brunswick’s labour market outcomes were mixed in 2024. On the one hand, its working age population continued to grow at a rapid pace (+2.9%), which led to an expanded labour force (+2.8%) and solid employment growth (+3.5%). The number of unemployed persons also fell by 6.2%.
- The province's unemployment rate increased from 6.6% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2024, as the province's labour force expanded at a faster rate than its workforce. Nevertheless, New Brunswick’s labour force participation rate remained low (60.6%), due to an increasing share of seniors, who are less likely than the overall population to seek work.
Economic Conditions
New Brunswick's Economic Drivers in 2023
Population growth
Low interest rates
Residential investment
Show data table: GDP Growth Rate
| GDP growth rate (%) | |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 5.3% |
| 2022 | 2.0% |
| 2023 | 1.6% |
- Population growth is expected to remain in positive territory in 2025, despite recent cuts to provincial allocations under federal immigration programs. International and interprovincial migration has helped offset natural population declines (births minus deaths) and address high job vacancy rates in certain sectors.
- Low interest rates should continue to support consumer spending and business investment. New Brunswick households are also less indebted than in other provinces, allowing for more flexibility in the face of economic risks.
- All levels of government have committed to raising housing development as a near-term priority and this has translated to near-record levels of home building in New Brunswick. Building permits remain elevated, suggesting that this trend will continue over the near-term.
Risks to the New Brunswick Economy in 2024
- U.S. and Chinese tariffs (and retaliatory measures) pose the greatest risk to New Brunswick's economic outlook in 2025. Broad-based tariffs, like those threatened by the U.S. administration, have the potential to reduce the volume of exports, thereby impacting jobs and overall output. These measures would likely also push prices higher.
- A related matter is one of weakening consumer confidence, which has the potential to lead to reductions in short-term consumption spending, offsetting some of the benefits of lower interest rates.
- Private sector investment may weaken in 2025 due to the uncertainty caused by the threat of U.S. tariffs, particularly in trade-exposed sectors. This will be offset to some degree by public sector capital expenditures.
Provincial Issues
Labour shortages and skills mismatches continue to exist, particularly in key industries like healthcare, education, construction and trucking. This has created a range of challenges for employers, including higher costs and reduced productivity.
With seniors accounting for a growing share of the population (23% in 2024), there are fewer people replacing retiring workers, leading to downward pressure on labour force participation and hiring challenges for employers. At the same time, a growing number of seniors are exerting upward pressure on health care costs.
The province’s population has grown rapidly over the past few years and construction of new housing units has failed to keep up. The result has been a steep escalation in housing values (nearly 20% growth since 2020), pricing a lot of would-be buyers out of the market and increasing rental rates.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|
| Construction | 3.1 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 2.6 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 1.4 |
| Public administration | 1.1 |
| Health care and social assistance | 1.0 |
| Accommodation and food services | 1.0 |
| Agriculture | 0.7 |
| Business, building and other support... | 0.6 |
| Utilities | 0.6 |
| Information, culture and recreation | 0.5 |
| Other services (except public administration) | 0.3 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental... | 0.2 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying... | 0.2 |
| Educational services | 0.1 |
| Manufacturing | -0.7 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | -1.1 |
- Two-thirds of the jobs added in 2024 were in the services-producing sector, which expanded by 7,500 positions. The smaller goods-producing sector, however, grew at a faster rate (5.1% versus 2.4%).
- Construction employment expanded by 3,100 in 2024, benefiting from home building and public infrastructure investment. The next two largest growth leaders were transportation and warehousing (+2,600) and professional, scientific and technical services (+1,400). Notably, health care and social assistance grew by 1,000, thanks to continued efforts to recruit nurses, doctors and other health care professionals.
- The only two industries to shed jobs in 2024 were fishing, hunting and trapping (-1,200) and manufacturing (-700).
Regional Economic Conditions
- Four of N.B.'s five economic regions (ERs) registered job gains in 2024. The lone exception was Campbellton-Miramichi, which shed 3,500 jobs on a year-over-year basis. Growth (in percentage terms) was led by Moncton-Richibucto (+5.5%), which added 6,900 jobs.
- The labour force generally expanded at a greater pace than employment, leading to unemployment rates increases in every region but Moncton-Richibucto, in 2024. This ER boasted the lowest unemployment rate in the province (5.5%).
- Labour force participation rates were up in three of five ERs in 2024, after falling in all five in 2023. The greatest increase was observed in Saint John-St. Stephen (+2.8 percentage points), followed by Fredericton-Oromocto (+0.5 p.p.) and Edmundston-Woodstock (+0.2 p.p.). Participation rates varied significantly, ranging from 51.0% in Campbellton-Miramichi to 63.9% in Moncton-Richibucto.
Show data table
| Employment Change by Economic Region in 2023 ('000s) | |
|---|---|
| New Brunswick | 11.4 |
| Moncton-Richibucto | 6.9 |
| Saint John-St.Stephen | 5.1 |
| Fredericton-Oromocto | 2.4 |
| Edmundston-Woodstock | 0.4 |
| Campbellton-Miramichi | -3.5 |
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