Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba: October 2022

This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of Manitoba, including the regions of Winnipeg, Northern Manitoba and Southern Manitoba.

Overview

October in Manitoba ushered in the final stages of harvest, the first snowfall of the season, and the highest employment (674,700) since comparable records began in 1976. Up 4,600 (+0.7%) from September, monthly employment numbers were buoyed by an increase in full-time work (+9,900; +1.8%), and partially offset by a decrease in part-time employment (-5,400; -4.2%). However, the increase in employment did little to ease labour shortages in the province, with no significant change in the participation rate (66.1%), or the unemployment rate (4.6%).

Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly Data
October 2022 September 2022 October 2021 Monthly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Population 15 + ('000) 1,069.2 1,067.1 1,052.8 2.1 0.2 16.4 1.6
Labour Force ('000) 707.1 701.9 696.5 5.2 0.7 10.6 1.5
Employment ('000) 674.7 670.1 658.2 4.6 0.7 16.5 2.5
Full-Time ('000) 551.2 541.3 532.9 9.9 1.8 18.3 3.4
Part-Time ('000) 123.4 128.8 125.4 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.6
Unemployment ('000) 32.4 31.8 38.3 0.6 1.9 -5.9 -15.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.6 4.5 5.5 0.1 - -0.9 -
Participation Rate (%) 66.1 65.8 66.2 0.3 - -0.1 -
Employment Rate (%) 63.1 62.8 62.5 0.3 - 0.6 -

* Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Statistics Canada – Table 14-10-0287-01, formerly CANSIM 282-0087

Manitoba Monthly Employment and Unemployment Rate
Manitoba monthly employment and unemployment rate. The data table for this graph is located below

Seasonally adjusted data
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey Table 14-10-0287

Show data table: Manitoba Monthly Employment and Unemployment Rate
Manitoba Monthly Employment and Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate (%) Employment ('000)
Oct-2020 7.2 652.4
Nov-2020 7.7 673.2
Dec-2020 8.4 627.2
Jan-2021 8.0 631.6
Feb-2021 6.9 647.2
Mar-2021 6.9 651.9
Apr-2021 7.3 655.7
May-2021 6.8 652.2
Jun-2021 7.1 647.3
Jul-2021 6.0 654.7
Aug-2021 5.8 652.3
Sep-2021 5.7 662.4
Oct-2021 5.5 658.2
Nov-2021 5.1 661.0
Dec-2021 5.3 664.8
Jan-2022 5.1 665.5
Feb-2022 4.8 671.9
Mar-2022 5.3 667.7
Apr-2022 5.0 667.2
May-2022 4.7 666.7
Jun-2022 3.8 670.7
Jul-2022 3.5 673.2
Aug-2022 5.3 663.2
Sep-2022 4.5 670.1
Oct-2022 4.6 674.7

The point where the number of employers seeking employees, and the number of jobseekers who are able to find jobs is balanced is called “full employment”. Canada is in full employment when the unemployment rate is between 5.5% and 6.5%. [1] Manitoba has not had full employment since October 2021. [2] Manitoba's unemployment rate was flat again at 4.6% in October, tied for third lowest among provinces and well below the national average of 5.2%. This chronic province-wide undersupply of labour may help increase wages as employers compete for workers to meet operational needs.

The federal and provincial government are both taking steps to help increase labour supply in the long term. Federal measures include historically high immigration targets, and $10/day daycare that will help limit barriers to employment and introduce new workers into the market. [3], [4] New temporary legislation to remove the limit on the number of hours that international students can work is also expected to reduce shortages and shutdowns. [5] The Government of Manitoba is also implementing measures to bolster the provincial workforce by spending $5 million on new immigration programs to help attract new workers, funding new seats in training programs, and raising the minimum wage to $15/hour by October 1, 2023. [6], [7], [8]

The youth unemployment rate jumped 2.5 percentage points to 10.2% in October from 7.7% in September. For young men, the rate more than doubled from 5.6% in September to 12.3% – a change of 6.7 percentage points. Young women fared much better this month, as the unemployment rate decreased from 9.6% to 8.0%. There were fewer men and women employed compared to September, however, the size of the labour force increased for young men and was flat for young women. This, combined with a more pronounced decrease in employment in the services-producing sector among young men, account for the stark contrast in the unemployment rate between these groups. [9]

Manitoba Monthly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age
Seasonally Adjusted Data October 2022
(%)
September 2022
(%)
October 2021
(%)
Monthly Variation
(% points)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Total 4.6 4.5 5.5 0.1 -0.9
25 years and over 3.5 3.9 4.9 -0.4 -1.4
Men - 25 years and over 3.1 3.4 5.1 -0.3 -2.0
Women - 25 years and over 4.0 4.5 4.6 -0.5 -0.6
15 to 24 years 10.2 7.7 8.9 2.5 1.3
Men - 15 to 24 years 12.3 5.6 9.7 6.7 2.6
Women - 15 to 24 years 8.0 9.6 8.0 -1.6 0.0

* Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Statistics Canada – Table 14-10-0287, formerly CANSIM 282-0087

Employment by industry

Employment in Manitoba's goods-producing sector remained flat again in October (+900; 0.7%). Agriculture was down slightly over the month (-100; -0.7%), but down drastically over the year (-8,700; -37.2%). Meanwhile, monthly employment in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas dipped in October (-300; -5.6%) but gained 45.7% (+1,600) over the year.

The services-producing sector was up 3,700 (0.7%) this month. Gains were spread across the sector, with the highest number in educational services (+1,600; 2.4%). Only Business, building and other supports services, and information, culture and recreation held the sector back, dropping 2,900 (-13.5%) and 900 (-3.9%) respectively over the month.

Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas had the largest year-over-year percentage gain in employment at 45.7% (+1,600). In an effort to further grow the forestry industry, the Government of Manitoba recently signed agreements with the Mosakahiken Cree Nation and Opaskwayak Cree Nation to begin a pilot project to increase access to capital from timber for these communities. For two years, the government will share up to 45% of the dues collected for timber harvested in around these communities. [10] In the past few years the government signed forestry management option licenses with First Nations communities and has been working toward establishing Indigenous-led commercial forestry operations, including $200,000 to enhance Indigenous participation in the forestry economy. [11], [12] These new agreements should increase employment opportunities for members of the First Nations communities.

While Manitoba's mining sector is small, it is a significant economic driver in northern communities and a major employer of Indigenous workers who, in 2021, comprised 23% of those working in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. [13] In an effort to strengthen the mineral sector in the province, the Government of Manitoba is providing $10 million over three years to the Manitoba Mineral Development Fund, administered by the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce. [14]

One project that may benefit the industry is the expected new lithium mine in Snow Lake. Snow Lake Resources recently announced intentions to construct the new mine in the near future. The company also announced an agreement to supply LG Energy Solution with enough lithium to feed LG's proposed lithium processing plant in Winnipeg. The two companies hope to have finished construction and begun processing by 2025. [15]

Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry
Seasonally Adjusted
Data ('000)
October 2022 September 2022 October 2021 Monthly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Total employed, all industries 674.7 670.1 658.2 4.6 0.7 16.5 2.5
Goods-producing sector 138.6 137.7 143.2 0.9 0.7 -4.6 -3.2
Agriculture 14.7 14.8 23.4 -0.1 -0.7 -8.7 -37.2
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 5.1 5.4 3.5 -0.3 -5.6 1.6 45.7
Utilities 5.3 5.2 4.9 0.1 1.9 0.4 8.2
Construction 47.6 47.5 47.9 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.6
Manufacturing 65.9 64.9 63.6 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.6
Services-producing sector 536.1 532.4 515.0 3.7 0.7 21.1 4.1
Trade 94.9 94.2 94.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2
Transportation and warehousing 40.2 40.1 42.8 0.1 0.2 -2.6 -6.1
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 41.6 40.2 36.9 1.4 3.5 4.7 12.7
Professional, scientific and technical services 35.7 35.5 31.5 0.2 0.6 4.2 13.3
Business, building and other support services 18.6 21.5 19.8 -2.9 -13.5 -1.2 -6.1
Educational services 67.1 65.5 58.0 1.6 2.4 9.1 15.7
Health care and social assistance 103.1 102.4 104.3 0.7 0.7 -1.2 -1.2
Information, culture and recreation 22.3 23.2 24.3 -0.9 -3.9 -2.0 -8.2
Accommodation and food services 41.5 39.8 36.1 1.7 4.3 5.4 15.0
Other services 27.1 26.9 27.4 0.2 0.7 -0.3 -1.1
Public administration 44.0 43.2 39.1 0.8 1.9 4.9 12.5

* Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Statistics Canada – Table 14-10-0355, formerly CANSIM 282-0088

On the other end of the spectrum, employment in Manitoba's agriculture sector has been steadily falling since September 2021. This drop is reflected in the 37.2% decrease (-8,700) in year-over-year employment in October. Meanwhile, employment has increased in this sector in the rest of the Western provinces over the same period. The drought of 2021 and storms in spring of 2022, have had a significant impact on operations this year.

In 2021, severe drought led to a decline in crop production of almost 30% in Manitoba. [16] Both crop producers and animal producers were affected by the decrease in crops: crop producers did not have as much product to market, and animal producers were short of feed from those crops. A special program to help supply feed to animal producers helped save approximately 17,000 head of cattle in the western provinces, but the food shortage still forced herds to be culled due to a lack of winter feed. [17]

As a result of several years of challenges, a large number of producers left the industry by January of this year. The 2022 calf crop was already expected to be smaller than usual when one of the worst storms in decades brought strong winds, heavy rain, and lots of snow to southern Manitoba in April. [18] The heavy snow and subsequent severe storms resulted in flooding in May and parts of June. [19] These weather events caused calf losses three or four times greater than an average year. [20], [21] The overall effect of these two weather events on the labour market has been drastic employment losses in the province for both self-employed workers and employees. [22] The bright spot in the sector is that increased yields for crop producers in 2022 along with healthy market prices for agricultural commodities should help farmers in an otherwise difficult year. [23]

Turning to the services-producing sector, growth in the accommodation and food services group of industries continued to push toward February 2020 employment levels. Month-over-month growth was 4.3% (+1,700) while yearly growth was strong at 15.0% (5,400). The industry was one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with employment in Manitoba shrinking by 30% (-12,300) between the first and second quarter of 2020. One of the main factors that is holding back employment is that tourism in the province has not fully recovered. Early forecasting predicted that tourism would be at pre-pandemic levels in 2024. Travel Manitoba estimates the recovery will now happen in 2023, one year sooner than expected. [24]

With few exceptions, employment in retail and wholesale trade has been at or above pre-pandemic levels since February 2021. The trend continued in October, holding steady from September (+700; +0.7%). This growth may still not be enough to fulfill labour demand for the sector. The Retail Council of Canada is already forecasting that retail businesses in the province will not have the staff to fully support the holiday shopping season. [25] The recent minimum wage increase from $11.95/hour to $13.50/hour may help attract young (aged 15 to 24), and older (55 and above) workers to fill labour gaps this year.

Another industry that is having trouble meeting the demand for labour in Manitoba is health care and social assistance. The industry has yet to recover to its peak employment level, reached in February 2020 when approximately 109,900 people were employed in health care and social assistance. In October there were 103,100 employed in the sector, still down 1.2% (-1,200) since last year. Staffing shortages have led to many front-line health care workers experiencing burnout, pushing some people to transition to different careers or retire.

Emergency Diabetes Support for Manitobans is the latest group to speak out about how lack of staff and postponed appointments are affecting patient care. Nurses at the Diabetes Education Resource for Children and Adolescents in the Health Sciences Centre are being temporarily reassigned to other departments that are also critically short. The diabetes clinic has cancelled over 70 appointments since the school year began. [26] The Government of Manitoba plans to address health care problems in the next throne speech on November 15. [27]

Regional analysis

Note: Unlike other Labour Force Survey data, regional statistics are not adjusted for regularly occurring seasonal employment events. Therefore, the data in this section are compared on an annual basis rather than a monthly basis.

On an annual basis, employment increased in all but one of Manitoba's economic regions. The South Central and North Central region had the highest year-over-year employment gains, up 4.7% (+2,600), and the second-highest decrease in unemployment rate, down 1.2 percentage points to 4.6%. The unemployment rate declined in all economic regions with the exception of Interlake, which rose slightly by 0.8 percentage points, and Southeast, which rose 0.2 percentage points to 4.1%. The Parklands and Northern region posted the lowest unemployment rate at 3.3%.

Year-over-year, employment increased by 4,300 (1.0%) in the Winnipeg economic region. Winnipeg had the highest unemployment rate in the province at 5.3% in October. The city's downtown has yet to fully recover from pandemic-related closures. The downtown office vacancy rate is stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels at around 16%, forcing businesses to adapt to the new normal as this trend continues. [28] On the other hand, suburban office vacancy rates are the lowest they have been since late 2020, emphasizing the pandemic's influence on office culture and employee willingness to commute. [29]

Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Economic Region
3-Month Moving Averages
Seasonally Unadjusted Data
Employment Unemployment Rate
October 2022
('000)
October 2021
('000)
Yearly Variation
(%)
October 2022
(%)
October 2021
(%)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Manitoba 671.7 660.8 1.6 4.9 5.7 -0.8
Economic Regions
Southeast 64.8 63.6 1.9 4.1 3.9 0.2
South Central and North Central 58.3 55.7 4.7 4.6 5.8 -1.2
Southwest 55.1 54.0 2.0 3.5 4.4 -0.9
Winnipeg 415.6 411.3 1.0 5.3 6.4 -1.1
Interlake 45.4 43.8 3.7 5.2 4.4 0.8
Parklands and Northern 32.4 32.5 -0.3 3.3 5.5 -2.2

* Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Statistics Canada – Table 14-10-0387, formerly CANSIM 282-0122

Concerns about safety may also be playing a role in recovery for downtown businesses. The Forks, a popular gathering space and event venue, has increased security after a number of violent incidents in the area this summer. Community groups say more resources are key to improving safety in the inner city along with people's willingness to spend time there. [30] The Government of Manitoba is addressing some of these concerns through a new $3.6 million grant for the Downtown Community Safety Partnership to help make downtown safer and more inviting. [31] The provincial government is also contributing $5.4 million to projects addressing homelessness. These include the low-barrier shelter N'Dinawemak on the Disraeli Freeway just north of downtown, as well as a planned transitional housing complex in the West Central neighbourhood for victims of gender-based violence. [32] Siloam Mission has been trying to scale up its services for Winnipeg's homeless community but is facing difficulty due to a volunteer shortage. Volunteers do the work of about 42 full-time jobs at the shelter, and many have not returned since the pandemic. [33]

The largest sector in the Southcentral and Northcentral region is manufacturing. Employment growth in this sector is driving employment growth in the region, which was the highest in the province at 4.7% last month. There are almost as many manufacturing jobs in the region as there have been in a decade, and with the nearby CentrePort becoming the largest inland port in the world, this trend is expected to continue. [34], [35] The Conference Board of Canada expects manufacturing in the province to continue to grow through 2024, but expects that labour shortages may limit the sector's growth potential. [36] One of the main regional strategies to address labour shortages is to focus on attracting new immigrants to fill positions. The Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot has helped bring 160 people to the region since 2019. The federal government recently announced that the pilot will be extended through 2024, helping to address the need in the bustling manufacturing sector. [37] Additionally, Regional Connections, an immigrant services group serving south central Manitoba, held a job fair in Winkler throughout the month of September. The goal was to fill 200 jobs in the region in 20 days, with 20 employers recruiting workers. [38]

Footnotes

  1. Bank of Canada (January 31, 2019). A Look Under the Hood of Canada's Job Market

  2. Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, ESDC custom table

  3. Government of Canada (November 1, 2022). An Immigration Plan to Grow the Economy

  4. Prime Minister's Office (April 21, 2021). $10 a day child care for Canadian families

  5. CBC News (October 8, 2022). International students in Winnipeg call change to work hour limit a good step but not enough

  6. Government of Manitoba (October 25, 2022). Manitoba Government Investing Over $12.5 Million for New Training Centre at Red River College Polytechnic

  7. Government of Manitoba (August 18, 2022). Manitoba Government Announces Plan to Increase Minimum Wage to $15 by October 2023

  8. Government of Manitoba. Manitoba Budget 2022 (Accessed November 6, 2022)

  9. Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, ESDC custom table

  10. Government of Manitoba (August 2, 2022). Manitoba Government Signing MOUs for Forestry Revenue Sharing Agreements with Mosakahiken Cree Nation and Opaskwayak Cree Nation

  11. Ibid.

  12. Winnipeg Free Press (March 23, 2020). Forestry sector holds promise for Indigenous communities

  13. Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, ESDC custom table.

  14. Government of Manitoba (June 14, 2022). Manitoba Government Dedicating $10 Million to Mining Industry

  15. Winnipeg Free Press (September 24, 2022). ‘This is a very, very big deal for Manitoba'

  16. Statistics Canada (December 3, 2021). Production of principal field crops, November 2021

  17. Global News (December 15, 2021). Hay West program saves 17,000 cattle, but herds still being culled due to drought

  18. CityNews (April 12, 2022). ‘Historic' storm with heavy snow, strong winds hits southern Manitoba

  19. CTV News (May 12, 2022). Manitoba Flood - May 12, 2022

  20. Manitoba Co-operator (May 5, 2022). Calving losses add insult to injury

  21. Manitoba Co-operator (October 27, 2022). Johnson not giving up on cattle numbers

  22. ESDC Custom Table

  23. Manitoba Cooperator (September 28, 2022). No end in sight for soaring farm equipment costs

  24. CTV News (September 12, 2022). Manitoba tourism: Industry rebounding faster than expected

  25. CTV News (November 4, 2022). Holiday shopping: stores facing staffing struggles

  26. CBC News (September 21, 2022). Nurse shortage causing 'scary' delays for pediatric diabetes patients in Manitoba: advocacy group

  27. CBC News (October 28, 2022). Manitoba government says throne speech Nov. 15 will focus on health care and affordability

  28. Winnipeg Free Press (October 24, 2022). Downtown office space stabilizing

  29. CBRE (July 21, 2022). Winnipeg Office Figures Q2 2022

  30. CBC News (July 6, 2022). Hungry and desperate: Address basic needs to improve downtown Winnipeg safety, community groups say

  31. CTV News (November 1, 2022). Manitoba government makes investment into downtown Winnipeg safety

  32. Winnipeg Free Press (August 11, 2022). Manitoba tabs additional $5.4M for fight against homelessness

  33. Global News (August 2, 2022). Winnipeg's Siloam Mission struggles with shortage of volunteers

  34. ESDC Custom Table

  35. Global News (October 21, 2022). Manitoba providing $40M to expand CentrePort site in Winnipeg

  36. Conference Board of Canada. (1) Manitoba providing $40M to expand CentrePort site in Winnipeg (Accessed July 11, 2022)

  37. Pembina Valley Online (August 30, 2022). SEED thrilled with extension to Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot

  38. Pembina Valley Online (August 29, 2022). Job Fair aims to fill the labour shortage gap in the Pembina Valley

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