Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33): Quebec, 2025

Workforce characteristics

The manufacturing sector has a higher proportion of men, at 70.6%, compared with an average of 52.5% for all industries. The textile mill and clothing manufacturing, chemical manufacturing and miscellaneous manufacturing subsectors have lower proportions of men, while petroleum and coal product manufacturing and primary metal product manufacturing stand out for its high proportion of men.

Manufacturing is also characterized by a high proportion of full-time employees, reaching 94.5%, compared to the average of 81.7% for all industries. This figure is particularly high in the computer and electronic product manufacturing subsector.

The manufacturing sector also has a notably low share of self-employed workers at 2.5%, compared to the average of 11.1% for all industries. However, the textile mill and clothing manufacturing and furniture and related product manufacturing subsectors have higher than average proportions in this category.

In terms of employee age, those aged between 15 and 24 account for just 7.3% of manufacturing employees, compared to 13.3% for all industries. The computer and electronic product manufacturing subsector is characterized by a very low proportion of young people, while wood product manufacturing and food, beverage and tobacco product manufacturing have higher proportions.

In addition, employees aged 55 and over represent 25.0% of the manufacturing workforce, which is higher than the average of 21.7% for all industries. The primary metal and metal product manufacturing subsectors have relatively low proportions, while the share of workers in this age group is higher for textile mills and clothing manufacturing, printing and related support activities, and furniture and related product manufacturing. The older structure of the sector is a result of the long decline in several of these segments, which essentially have not hired staff for years.

Finally, in terms of level of education, 23.5% of manufacturing employees have a university degree, which is a lower percentage than the average of 31.9% for all industries. University graduates are less numerous proportionally in the wood product manufacturing and furniture and related product manufacturing subsectors, while machinery manufacturing, chemical manufacturing, computer and electronic product manufacturing, and electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing stand out for their high proportions of university graduates.

Like many industrialized economies, Quebec's economy has seen its share of manufacturing decline as it moves toward a service economy. The percentage of jobs in Quebec's manufacturing sector fell below 20% in 1982 and below 15% in 2007 and remained at around 11.2% between 2022 and 2024. In 2020, the manufacturing sector was severely affected by the pandemic. Subsectors, considered non-essential, ceased operations on an ad hoc basis at the beginning of the health crisis. Moreover, they had difficulty recruiting temporary foreign workers due to travel restrictions, mandatory quarantines and social distancing measures.

However, some subsectors benefitted from the crisis. For example, textile mills and clothing manufacturing benefitted from a sudden demand for fabric masks, whereas electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing supplied medical instruments. Similarly, chemical manufacturing helped produce disinfectants, soaps and other sanitary items, and the miscellaneous manufacturing subsector provided surgical and medical supplies.

The year 2023 was marked by a slight recession in Quebec in the last three quarters after a strong post-pandemic recovery in 2021 and 2022. Manufacturing output fell by 0.8% for the year, while employment also dropped by 0.8% the following year in 2024. This recession followed the Bank of Canada's rapid increase of interest rates, and the key interest rate jumped from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5.00% in July 2023. These high rates stayed in place until the spring of 2024 before the Bank of Canada gradually lowered the key interest rate to 2.75% at the beginning of 2025.

Despite continuous population growth, aging was an important factor in the labour market, which caused a labour shortage due to an insufficient replacement rate for retiring workers. At the same time, Quebec recorded historically low unemployment rates. The rate reached 4.5% in 2023 and then jumped to 5.3% in 2024.

Various subsectors move in fits and starts, often going from a good year to a bad one in terms of job creation, depending on the ups and downs of the economic situation specific to each one, or even to each individual company.

Food, beverage and tobacco product manufacturing and textile mills and clothing manufacturing, which are in dire need of workers, benefitted from the massive influx of temporary workers in 2023 and 2024. The swine feverin China (2019-2020) had helped the food manufacturing segment, but the return to normalcy was a challenge for companies like Olymel and its suppliers. In addition, this sector continues to benefit from the public's enthusiasm for local and regional products. Moreover, despite a boost during the pandemic, textile mills and clothing manufacturing continue to decline, even though some niche areas, such as innovative textiles, have experienced growth. However, this growth does not offset the losses of traditional activities, such as carpets or curtains, which are much more labour intensive.

The forestry industry remains an economic pillar for many municipalities that are far from major urban centres. This industry was marked by several crises, which led to closures, mergers, acquisitions and shifting production in response to the decline of certain products, such as newsprint. The last two years were particularly difficult due to various factors, particularly the forest fires in 2023, fluctuations in U.S. demand, insect infestations, such as the spruce budworm, and the potential impacts of habitat protection strategies for forest-dwelling and mountain caribou. In the wood product manufacturing subsector, after a crisis between 2015 and 2018, job fluctuations were less prominent. There were job gains during the pandemic due to high wood prices, which was followed by a decrease when they dropped. As for paper manufacturing, after a rise related to an increased demand for cardboard in e-commerce, the general trend is still downward, but at a more moderate rate. The printing and related activities subsector had closures during the pandemic. Although employment subsequently picked up, it remains lower than previous levels.

Employment in petroleum and coal product manufacturing remains relatively low. This subsector is mainly a source of foreign currency for the province. In chemical manufacturing and plastics and rubber products manufacturing, employment has remained stable over the past 15 years. Chemical manufacturing is mainly driven by the pharmaceutical sector, which accounts for half of the jobs and includes large multinationals, such as Pfizer and Merck. In turn, the plastics and rubber products manufacturing subsector is closely linked to the transportation, construction and packaging sectors, where it acts as a supplier.

The mining industry subsectors have had significant employment fluctuations over the years. Non-metallic mineral manufacturing includes traditional manufacturing companies, such as glass, cement, ceramic or brick producers. Their employment trends are closely linked to construction activity with significant variations (−11.8% in 2022 and +24.7% in 2023). The primary metal product sector is particularly exposed to fluctuations in international conditions, with a significant proportion of its shipments directed outside of Canada and mainly to the United States. The subsector is involved in the production and processing of alumina and aluminum, processing non-ferrous metals (copper, silica, zinc, etc.) and manufacturing steel products. Metal product manufacturing mainly serves the mining, power, construction, and transport equipment and machinery sectors.

The machinery manufacturing subsector shows a long-term upward trend, although its development is marked by fluctuations. This subsector is largely export-oriented with one- third of its sales heading to the United States, which makes it vulnerable to the global economic situation. Since machinery has a large steel component, U.S. steel tariffs could affect the subsector.

During the pandemic, the computer and electronic product manufacturing and electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing subsectors realized the importance of international supply chains, especially for semiconductors and electronic chips. Although the disruptions affected growth, they have since subsided. Computer product manufacturing benefitted from an ongoing demand for consumer electronics, whereas electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing had significant variations.

Transportation equipment manufacturing is heavily dependent on the production of aerospace products and parts, which account for around half of all jobs in the subsector. This subsector is closely linked to major global players, such as Bombardier, CAE, Airbus, and Boeing, whose ups and downs greatly influence overall employment in the subsector. There were significant variations, particularly a decrease of 14.0% in 2022 and job gains of 13.7% in 2023 and 9.3% in 2024.

In furniture and related product manufacturing, the pandemic disrupted supply chains, which caused delivery delays and a halt in production. This resulted in 20% of jobs being lost in 2020, which returned to normal in 2022. Since then, employment has remained relatively stable.

In conclusion, the miscellaneous manufacturing subsector has experienced significant growth, posting a 10% annual increase since the pandemic. The subsector produces medical supplies and equipment, as well as jewelry, sports goods, toys, office supplies, and signs.

Employment in the manufacturing sector is expected to experience a slight decline during the 2025-2027 forecast period, whereas all industries are expected to grow slightly. The uncertainty related to trade disputes with the United States weighs heavily on those outlooks.

From the very first days of the new U.S. administration, tariffs have been announced, targeting Canada and Mexico in particular. Although there has been some backtracking on these measures (only a few items that are not covered by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) are still subject to general tariffs), several products are still subject to tariffs, including 25% tariffs on non-U.S. automobile components and parts, 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper, and 35% on lumber. Other products, such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, could also be subject to tariffs, which would affect employment in Quebec.

Furthermore, the CUSMA will have to be renegotiated during the forecast period. This will create uncertainty particularly for the manufacturing sector, which is heavily export-oriented, even for companies whose products are currently covered by the agreement.

Quebec's manufacturing sector is highly diversified. Its 501,100 jobs in 2022-2024 are spread across several subsectors, of which food and beverages and transportation equipment are the largest. The manufacturing industry has already been facing challenges for decades, including the relocation of production to developing economies, which forced some subsectors to specialize in high value-added activities or focus on niche markets. In addition, the aging of its own workforce is increasingly felt due to slow hiring growth during its long decline in terms of jobs. On the other hand, the pandemic demonstrated the importance of maintaining some local production capacity. Investments in sustainable production practices and relatively low energy costs are assets for Quebec's industry. However, the availability of workers is still an issue. Recruitment difficulties will be exacerbated by the tightening of conditions under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in 2024.

Domestic demand for manufactured goods should grow over the forecast period in part due to the replacement of American products for local products in response to the current political situation. Consumer disposable income could be reduced by the economic slowdown that is expected at the beginning of the period and the resulting rise in the unemployment rate, but households should benefit from interest rates that have returned to historically low levels.

Subsector characteristics

Despite these challenges, some subsectors are poised to experience some growth. For example, the electronic and computer product and the equipment and electrical appliance subsectors should continue to benefit from gains in recent years, just like the non-metallic mineral subsector, which is benefitting from an international situation that supports its development. However, the paper and printing industry should have ongoing difficulties due to a lower demand and the effects of trade tensions.

In food and beverage manufacturing, employment growth will drop slightly, despite gains at the beginning of the period. Although businesses in this sector are benefitting from consumer enthusiasm for local products and a desire for a certain degree of food independence, certain challenges will be particularly significant, such as the tightening of conditions under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, uncertainties surrounding certain companies, such as the closure of several Olymel facilities, and the persistent difficulties of microbreweries and distilleries. Food products under supply management (e.g., dairy products, chicken, turkey, and eggs) make this the most protected economic segment in Canada. The subsector is being scrutinized by the new U.S. administration, which often criticizes supply management. At the same time, only 8.6% (in 2023) of the subsector's sales were exported to the United States.

In the case of textile mills and clothing manufacturing, employment dynamics are primarily influenced by its capacity for innovation in new technical textile materials and the international competitiveness of Quebec companies. Manufacturers that have remained in Quebec have turned to niche markets (high-end, custom or small-batch manufacturing, special orders and just-in-time production). Others have retained only high value-added activities, such as design, pattern making and planning. Rising costs and recruitment difficulties are undermining the profitability of companies in these labour-intensive industries, while investment in automation is becoming rarer. The uncertainties surrounding the trade dispute with the United States is expected to affect the subsector's growth. Moreover, part of the subsector is concentrated in luxury apparel, which is sensitive to economic fluctuations.

Employment in wood products manufacturing is expected to drop over the forecast period. The increases in U.S. tariffs on lumber, which had already been anticipated before the new administration, are likely to remain in effect. In addition, the negative effects of forest fires and the caribou protection strategy, are expected to have an impact on the supply. These effects will be partially mitigated by a higher demand associated with a boost in housing starts in Canada. However, we can expect more frequent price fluctuations and greater market volatility. This sector will also have to adapt to climate change and comply with environmental standards that could become more stringent.

Paper manufacturing is expected to decline. Companies involved in traditional products should reduce their output in response to lower demand. Business conversions will save a number of jobs but may require fewer personnel. Moreover, the increase in water charges will add to their costs.

As with paper manufacturing, the printing and related activities subsector should also experience a drop in employment. Traditional segments, such as newspaper and advertising material printing, should suffer significant losses with the closure of companies, such as TC Transcontinental, which already lost 200 jobs due to the closure of its Saint-Hyacinthe printing plant in June 2024. Although there is potential for development in more specialized niches, the majority of new businesses are small or very small. Job losses are therefore expected to outweigh job creation.

With regard to chemical manufacturing, a slight drop in employment is anticipated in the forecast period. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology segment, which is a traditional driver of the subsector growth, could face the consequences of tariffs or the threat of U.S. tariffs. However, the manufacture of new chemical products, such as green hydrogen, which is supported by Quebec's hydrogen strategy by 2030, should continue to create jobs.

Employment in plastics and rubber products manufacturing should stagnate with greater dynamism toward the end of the period. The plastics products manufacturing segment is expected to fare better than the rubber products manufacturing segment because of tire production, which accounts for a significant portion of the segment's employment and exports. Tires are among the automobile parts that are subject to U.S. tariffs.

The non-metallic mineral product manufacturing subsector is expected to see its job growth outstrip that of manufacturing in general, thanks in part to the buoyant construction subsector on which it is largely dependent. The subsector is less dependent on exports than other manufacturing segments.

As for the primary metal product manufacturing subsector, it is highly exposed to international conditions, given that many of its shipments are sent outside Canada and mainly to the United States. There will be negative job growth at the beginning of the forecast period and then it will surge towards the end of it, but much uncertainty remains. The tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper will hit the subsector hard, especially the steel segment, which is also bearing the brunt of a global oversupply.

Job growth in fabricated metal product manufacturing is expected to be slightly lower than the manufacturing sector in general. The subsector is facing unique challenges because it is meeting the needs of sectors that are having difficulty themselves, such as the mining, transport equipment and machinery manufacturing sectors.

A decline is expected in the machinery manufacturing subsector. The subsector benefitted from the acceleration of automation efforts and the integration of new technologies into production processes. Since the industry is strongly influenced by economic conditions and exports, the general slowdown in job growth and the uncertainty surrounding trade with the United States should have an impact on the subsector.

In the computer and electronic product manufacturing subsector, employment is expected to stagnate. The worldwide shortage of semiconductors, which had disrupted the market, but was resolved by 2022-2023, and various government initiatives to support this segment should contribute to its growth. The measuring and medical device manufacturing segment will also have a positive impact on maintaining jobs in the subsector, despite the risks associated with a shortage of skilled workers and potential threats of U.S. tariffs.

The electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing subsector should also stagnate. Supported by the federal and provincial governments, the electrification of transport should generate benefits for the Quebec economy through the production of batteries. The battery industry was set to become a major player in the Quebec economy, but the bankruptcy of Northvolt tempered the outlook for the subsector and for employment around the Bécancour Industrial Park.

As for transportation equipment manufacturing, this subsector represents a significant issue for the U.S. administration. Although tariffs on vehicles and parts mainly affect Ontario, this segment still accounts for 27.6% of the subsector's jobs in Quebec. Aeronautics, which account for around half of the jobs in the subsector, continue to drive its growth and seems to have been spared from U.S. tariffs for now. This industry should experience growth close to that of the manufacturing sector, but stronger at the start of the forecast period. The subsector will benefit from the recovery of the aeronautics segment thanks to major contracts worth billions of dollars and increased investments in the electrification of transport and defence. That said, supply issues and recruitment difficulties in the aeronautics segment could slow growth.

Finally, for furniture and related product manufacturing, employment is expected to stagnate between 2025 and 2027. Even though wood prices are expected to drop, and the subsector could benefit from growth in the construction industry, trade tensions with the United States, which is the main export market, are likely to influence the results. At the same time, investments have been down over the past three years, which points to potential capacity reductions.

For further information

Appendix

Table A1
Geographic Distribution of Employment and Employment Outlook in Quebec, average 2022-2024

Table A2
Workforce Characteristics in Quebec, average 2022-2024